Far-right 精东传媒app Rally party unlikely to form government in France

01 Jul 2024

Despite Marine Le Pen's far-right party leading the polls in the first round of the French snap parliamentary elections with 34 per cent of the national vote, an expert from The Australian 精东传媒app University (ANU) says the 精东传媒app Rally party is unlikely to form a majority government.

Exit polls indicate The New Popular Front, a newly created coalition of left-wing parties, is sitting in second place with about 29 per cent of the vote, while President Emmanuel Macron's coalition is trailing in third place with just over 20 per cent, signalling a significant setback for his party.

Dr Romain Fathi, who is in France, said a historically high number of voters have thrown their support behind Le Pen and the far-right in the first round of the elections, indicating a seismic shift in the French peoples鈥 political mindset and desire for radical change.

鈥淭his is by far the largest amount of votes the far-right has received in legislative elections in France since the Second World War,鈥 Dr Fathi said.

鈥淎lthough the 精东传媒app Rally party seems ahead today, it鈥檚 unlikely to be able to form government after the second round of the elections on 7 July. This is because the party鈥檚 capacity to attract more voters in the coming days is limited, which has been a recurrent issue for the far-right in past elections at the second round.

鈥淎lliances that will coalesce between political parties this week are likely to result in the 精东传媒app Rally facing a united front against its candidates in most electorates. This will make it鈥痸ery difficult for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's far-right populist party to win seats at the 精东传媒app Assembly on 7 July.

鈥淲hile a government of moderates united against both extreme ends of the political spectrum appears to be more plausible than a majority far-right or far-left government, it may not guaranty political stability as diverse coalitions in France don't have a strong track record for stable government.鈥

Dr Fathi said only 67 per cent of French voters cast their鈥痓allot on 30 June, meaning millions of French people could tip the balance one way or another in their electorate in the second and 鈥渕ost crucial鈥 round of elections on 7 July.

He said the coming days will prove extraordinary for French politics as political alliances 鈥渨ill be made and broken鈥.

鈥淕iven France's traumatic experience of the Second World War and the collaboration of its far-right Vichy Government with the Nazis, some French people who did not vote in the first round of the elections may head to the polling booth in the second round to prevent the far-right from winning these legislative elections and forming government,鈥 he said.

鈥淢ore importantly, most democrats will make unlikely alliances at the local level to prevent the election of far-right MPs. This means that moderate left, centre and moderate right-wing politicians will work with one another in every electorate to decide which candidate is best suited to win in an electorate when facing a far-right candidate.

鈥淟eaders of those moderate parties have strong divisions, but they are united in their will to combat the 精东传媒app Rally. Politicians as diverse as Marine Tondelier, former PM Edouard Philippe, Fran莽ois Bayrou, Rapha毛l Glucksmann, current PM Gabriel Attal and others have all called for the creation of a 鈥楻epublican Front鈥 to defeat the 精东传媒app Rally within an hour of the election results being made public.

鈥淚n practical terms, it means that where a moderate candidate from the left, the centre or the right is facing a candidate from the far-left or the far-right in an electorate, the moderate candidate who has received the most votes at the first round of the legislative election will represent all other moderates who will unite behind them, thus gaining a considerable amount of votes which in turn means that a 精东传媒app Rally candidate is unlikely to be elected as an MP.鈥

鈥淲hile this strategy has proven successful in 2002, 2017 and 2022 and may once again work, it does not mean that it will enable France to have a strong and united government, even if the far-right does not get in.鈥